Valid point for sure. I'd say in a standard lease your residual should be around 50% based on 3 years.
No such thing as a "standard lease".
Look at what BMW Zs were going for last month. CRAZY cheap for as expensive as that car is. Then compare a lease on say something from Chrysler.
I leased my first BMW 3 series for $386mth ($408 after tax) in 2004. It was almost a 40k car. I put down $2500 I think it was. Can't remember exactly. 12k miles 36 months. Leasing was HOT and deals were screaming back then.
My 2011 4dr GTI DSG w/ sunroof was a $28k car. I had $710 due at signing which included my first months payment and my mthly is $379 after tax. 36mths 15k miles.
It's damn hard to get
any car of note for less than $350 a month. The 60mth 1.9% payment, if you got it at $26500 (depending on your tax) is $500 a month. That's over 5 years. You have to factor depreciation into your costs as well as interest and maintenance beyond the warranty. You could easily spend close to 50k on your car by the time it's 5 years old. What now? You have a 5 year old car that still has monthly costs associated with it, by way of maintenance. (figuring your yearly maintenance costs factored monthly.)
With leasing, you know up front, the exact amount of money you are going to spend on a vehicle. I like that. No surprises. There are other risks and considerations when leasing, sure, and it doesn't fit everyone nor does it fit every vehicle (for example, I
buy my trucks). However, I'll be onto another new vehicle in 3 years while the purchaser is still paying more for his now 3 year old car (not only per month but total) and dealing with maintenance costs etc. that come with an aging German auto.
For me, I don't consider
cars long term vehicles. Cars to me are an equal part enjoyment as well as utility where as trucks are all about the utility. I've kept trucks 10 years. I don't give a shit what it looks like or drives like, it still does it's intended purpose. Cars, I care what it looks like, I care what it drives like, and it's intended purpose is normally up by 3 years, in my case.
You have to be on your game when it comes to leasing because it is a dealer cash cow. I figure if the dealer hates me by the time the deal is done, I've done a good job. There is a blog called ridewithG that has updated monthly figures for leasing and some general information. Check it out. This months numbers on a GTI are a measure worse than last months (which were OK but not great).
We needed a second car and the clock was against me. I feel I got a good deal on a great car given my personal obstacles (kids start school need a 2nd car etc) and what was available at that price point.
