What role do you think forecasting uncertainty played in that? Up until ~48hrs before landfall, the hardest hit areas were on the very southern edge of the “cone of uncertainty.”
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2022/IAN_graphics.php?product=5day_cone_with_line
It seemed like the NHC was a little slow to adjust their official forecast while reliable models were forecasting the shift southeast. But, it’s really easy to armchair quarterback and see everything in clear 20/20 hindsight.
I’m definitely not blaming forecasters. I just think the uncertainty breeds hesitancy to act. Not sure what we can do about that, as weather people are always very clear what the cone means.
Good question and we had that same question for the National Weather Service today. As you saw from GTI's spaghetti model, the predictions are all over the place and this particular storm was very challenging.
Initially, we were expecting it to go farther west (MS, maybe LA), but then it looked like going east, then west again. Most were convinced that Tampa was going to be where the eye was going hit.
All were mostly convinced that it was going to be bad.
Yes, there are those that are in financial straits, but there are services that could help with that as far as evacuations are concerned - but I know from Katrina that the majority that stayed said "fuck it, it isn't going to be bad".
It is also easy for Jay to criticize when he's not sitting in Florida up to his neck in water. This is a 500 year flood event.
And if I were on a high horse, then I wouldn't worry about high water.