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CSB2: Zrick Crowned Kind Of The Forum - Enjoys Whiskey To Celebrate

cb1111

Newbie
Ian hit the Ft Myers area really hard. No potable water, shelters closing (Fl now has 33k people in shelters) in Lee cty due to water issues so people being moved to other counties. 2+ million people without power and that will go to 3m later this week. Forecast timing for power restoration in Ft Myers is a couple of weeks.

As of noon, the 10 Urban Search and Rescue Teams made 500 rescues and the USCG rescued 17 Cuban migrants from a capsized boat.

Most fatalities happen after the event and from stupidity - running a generator in the garage, next to an open window, refilling a running/hot generator and the like.

The first recorded fatality here was a guy who decide to drain his pool into a drainage ditch using a hose. He fell down the embankment and wasn't found until several hours later when his wife called 911 to report him missing.

Way too many people didn't take this seriously. JAX is expecting a few feet of storm surge later tonight.
 

uglybastard

Autocross Champion
I don't get sick often as it is, and if I did I'd just work from home.
We know what you're doing. It's a long con so you can play hookie one day for an epic day in Chicago.

Picsart_22-09-29_19-32-01-407.jpg
 

mrmattolsen

Autocross Champion
Way too many people didn't take this seriously.
What role do you think forecasting uncertainty played in that? Up until ~48hrs before landfall, the hardest hit areas were on the very southern edge of the “cone of uncertainty.” https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2022/IAN_graphics.php?product=5day_cone_with_line

It seemed like the NHC was a little slow to adjust their official forecast while reliable models were forecasting the shift southeast. But, it’s really easy to armchair quarterback and see everything in clear 20/20 hindsight.

I’m definitely not blaming forecasters. I just think the uncertainty breeds hesitancy to act. Not sure what we can do about that, as weather people are always very clear what the cone means.
 
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shovelhd

Autocross Champion
I would not equate the hesitancy to evacuate as being solely due to "not taking this seriously" or hubris. Many people cannot afford to uproot themselves and get to a relative's home or rent a hotel. Not everyone is as fortunate as those on this forum. This economy totally sucks for the lower and middle class working people. Some people are choosing to either fill their tank or fill their grocery cart. They can't do both.

Now, the guy who stays in his $5M waterfront home to guard his $1M boat, that's another story. I'm talking about the people in apartments or those who lived in the trailer park that was wiped out.
 

jay745

track sl00t
I would not equate the hesitancy to evacuate as being solely due to "not taking this seriously" or hubris. Many people cannot afford to uproot themselves and get to a relative's home or rent a hotel. Not everyone is as fortunate as those on this forum. This economy totally sucks for the lower and middle class working people. Some people are choosing to either fill their tank or fill their grocery cart. They can't do both.

Now, the guy who stays in his $5M waterfront home to guard his $1M boat, that's another story. I'm talking about the people in apartments or those who lived in the trailer park that was wiped out.
This x100. Cb1 needs to stick to spam posts and get off the high horse
 

cb1111

Newbie
What role do you think forecasting uncertainty played in that? Up until ~48hrs before landfall, the hardest hit areas were on the very southern edge of the “cone of uncertainty.” https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2022/IAN_graphics.php?product=5day_cone_with_line

It seemed like the NHC was a little slow to adjust their official forecast while reliable models were forecasting the shift southeast. But, it’s really easy to armchair quarterback and see everything in clear 20/20 hindsight.

I’m definitely not blaming forecasters. I just think the uncertainty breeds hesitancy to act. Not sure what we can do about that, as weather people are always very clear what the cone means.
Good question and we had that same question for the National Weather Service today. As you saw from GTI's spaghetti model, the predictions are all over the place and this particular storm was very challenging.

Initially, we were expecting it to go farther west (MS, maybe LA), but then it looked like going east, then west again. Most were convinced that Tampa was going to be where the eye was going hit.

All were mostly convinced that it was going to be bad.

Yes, there are those that are in financial straits, but there are services that could help with that as far as evacuations are concerned - but I know from Katrina that the majority that stayed said "fuck it, it isn't going to be bad".

It is also easy for Jay to criticize when he's not sitting in Florida up to his neck in water. This is a 500 year flood event.

And if I were on a high horse, then I wouldn't worry about high water.
 

riceburner

Autocross Champion

brat_burner

Autocross Champion
Why are they calling it a 500 year event? What about Katrina, Harvey, Sandy, Andrew, Irma...

Also, the YT algo was showing me clips of the older tornadoes in Moore, OK. Entire neighborhoods just turned into rubble.
 

mrmattolsen

Autocross Champion

cb1111

Newbie
And for those of you who have been affected, you can apply for disaster assistance here https://www.disasterassistance.gov/
Why are they calling it a 500 year event? What about Katrina, Harvey, Sandy, Andrew, Irma...

Also, the YT algo was showing me clips of the older tornadoes in Moore, OK. Entire neighborhoods just turned into rubble.
DeSantis called it a 500 year flood event in Central Florida because that seems exactly what it is.

This has nothing to do with destruction, but multiple flooding records were broken.
 
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