if the '11 model years are anything like the '10, then I would plan on 90-120 days as an average. My dealer submitted the order early November '09 and the car showed up February 26, 2010. The real problem is that nothing can even guarantee that your order (or more specifically... your request) will ever be picked up by the factory. You really have a dilemma if you're simply planning on your lease to end and have your new "ordered" car even close to the day your lease ends. You'd be much better off finding a car on a lot somewhere or ending your lease, finding a temporary car to get you by until your ordered car shows up. I've read on other forums where some guys have waited 6 months and their order was never picked up by the factory. Keep in mind some dealerships never get direct allocations from the factory (a regional rep from VWofA assigns cars to those dealers) and no dealership has control over which allocations are picked up by the factory, but they can submit their allocation requests to Factory and hopefully they get what they requested.
Therefore, ask your dealership specifically if they are a dealership who can submit allocations directly to the factory or if they are one that VWofA assigns cars to their dealership.
I highly doubt you'll find many dealerships that are willing to negotiate off MSRP on a order. Typically the only way you might be able to do that is if you really load the car up with options. On the other hand you certainly would have a much better chance negotiating with a dealership if you simply found the car on the lot without ordering it. They really got ya by the balls when you order.
BEST OF LUCK !