It looks like the gasket in the case where those 5 bolts are. Unless it's wet by that drain plug. Throw a torque wrench on them, you might get lucky. Otherwise you need to split the case.
Look real close at your hubs. They can leak
The hubs coming out of your trans. That connect your axles. If those seals go or they arent tight enough, then they will leak. There is one alan bolt in the center that hold the hub onto the trans. Have to remove the axle out of the way to see it.
You're manual right? That fresh oil drop in the middle looks like gear oil, smell it, gear oil has a distinct smell, so you should be able to tell easily if it is
To check the level, open the fill plug and if nothing comes out, stick your finger in there to see if you feel oil. A filled tranny should have oil right at the bottom of the fill hole